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As the Premier League season winds down, we beam our search light at the bottom end of the table. Last weekend, Manchester City clinched the title thanks to struggling West Bromwich Albion surprise win at Old Trafford. With the battle for European spots (Champions League and Europa League) almost sorted, what we have is a spectacular battle at the wrong end of the table this season. Our focus is on the survival battle.
What is the cost of Premier League relegation? The actual cost cannot be put in one context. There are financial and sporting impact to dropping out from this division. The sporting impact ties into the financial. One of the sporting effect would see relegated club lose some of their best players. Many players may not be willing to ply their trade at a lower level and help their club regain instant promotion. Some of the financial implication include receiving less money from broadcasting rights, match day income and commercial revenue.
According to Deloitte’s Sports Business Group, the estimated value of Premier League relegation would be in the region of £55m-£65m. It is no surprise that Premier League owners/boards are no longer patient with their managers once the threat of relegation emerges. Nine clubs have changed their manager at least once this season with West Brom doing so twice.
With five match days left, the future of eight Premier League clubs is yet to be decided.
WEST BROMWICH ALBION
The Baggies are the basement club in the league with 24 points from 34 matches. Under former manager, Alan Pardew, West Brom won 8 points out of a possible 54. They are currently nine points from safety and have only four games to save their lives. They host Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur while making trips to Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Against all odds, they won at Old Trafford to stop their winless run. In spite of this, they would need to win all their remaining games to stand a chance of survival. We believe it is near impossible therefore their chances of survival is less than 10%.
STOKE CITY
The Potter’s 10 years Premier League stint could be coming to an end. Mark Hughes reign as manager was brought to an end after a run of five defeats in seven Premier League games in January. Stoke City sit 19th on the log with four games left, they are five points from 17th position having played a game more than Swansea. Stoke have home games at the Bet365 stadium against Burnley and Crystal Palace and away games at Liverpool and Swansea. Stoke can make the magical 40 points if they win all their remaining matches but we feel it is improbable. Their chances of getting relegated is over 90%.
SOUTHAMPTON
The Saints have find themselves in unfamiliar terrain for the first time since they won promotion back to the Premier League in 2012-13 season. in a recent interview, Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger praised the South coast club for being the best football factory in the England in recent years with the amount precocious talents graduating from their academy. Southampton have five games to beat the drop starting with a trip to face their former manager Claude Puel at Leicester. They play Bournemouth and champions Manchester City at home and have to travel to Everton and Swansea in addition to their trip to Leicester. The Saints are still involved in the FA Cup (semi final against Chelsea) which could be a distraction.
The Saints are in a very difficult position considering their run of games. We believe their chances of going down is over 60%.
SWANSEA CITY
The Swans survived this battle last season. Can they do achieve same objective this time? Carlos Carvahal team are five points above the drop zone but should be fully aware their Premier League status isn’t secured. Swansea need seven points to hit the magical 40. In their last five league matches, they have three home matches (Chelsea, Southampton and Stoke City) and two away matches (Manchester City and Bournemouth). The Swans should be quite optimistic about their survival chances. They have winnable home games against Southampton and Stoke City which could further compound their rivals miseries. We believe their chances of getting relegated is 20%.
CRYSTAL PALACE
Crystal Palace are currently 16th on the log and are six points clear of the relegation zone. The Eagles have 34 points from 34 matches this season and are on course to retain their top flight status. Roy Hodgson’s Palace are in control of their destiny with a relatively fair fixtures run to end the campaign. Three of their remaining four opponents are in the lower half of the table and the last opponent, Leicester who are in the top half will be visiting Selhurst Park where Palace will backed fully by a vocal crowd. We believe their chances of going down is less than 5%.
HUDDERSFIELD TOWN
Huddersfield Town are aiming to beat the drop in their first season in the Premier League. The Terriers enjoyed a solid start to Premier League life with two wins on the bounce but have struggled to find consistency. They are one of the least scoring sides in the league with 27 goals in 34 matches. David Wagner’s team are seven points above the relegation zone but have one of the toughest run-in among the relegation candidates. Home games to Everton and Arsenal have become a must win if they are to beat the drop because their last two away games are at champions Manchester City and former champions Chelsea. We believe their chances of going down is 25%.
WEST HAM UNITED
The Hammers are having a season to forget with poor performances both on and off the pitch. David Moyes was brought in to steady the ship and he has done a fairly decent job. West Ham are 14th on the log with 35 points. West Ham cannot claim to be safe with the tough fixtures ahead of them. They face teams in the top half (away at Arsenal, home to Manchester City, away to Leicester, home to Manchester United and home to Everton). Moyes will approach these final set of games with optimism as several important players (Manuel Lanzini, Andy Carroll) have started returning from injury. The Hammers have an experienced team and coach which should help. We believe their chances of going down is less than 10%.
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Brighton are one of the three promoted teams this season with an objective to retain their Premier League status. The Seagulls are 13th on the log with 35 points but their safety isn’t guaranteed with five games to go. They have the toughest run in the survival battle race. Starting with a home game to Tottenham Hotspur, they travel to Burnley, host Manchester United, travel to Manchester City and round off their season with a trip to Liverpool. It is possible Brighton could lose all five games and that could see them return to the Championship. Brighton have to be brave in these games. Their chance of going down is quite possible with a rating of 35%.
The frenetic Premier League survival battle will surely have many turns and twist which would provide us with a lot of excitement as we hit home stretch. Don’t miss out!
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